Worried Billionaire Ray Dalio says Donald Trump's tariff war is pushing America close to a recession — or perhaps even “something worse”

Ray Dalio , founder of Bridgewater Associates , one of the world’s largest hedge funds, recently issued a stark warning on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday, cautioning that the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession—or potentially something worse—if current economic policies are mishandled. Dalio, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, pointed to President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies as a major destabilizing force.

Dalio criticized the chaotic implementation of Trump’s tariffs, aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing and jobs, likening their impact to “throwing rocks into the production system.” He emphasized that the difference between a “stable” and “disruptive” approach to tariffs could determine whether the economy weathers the storm or plunges into chaos.

Global markets have been rattled in recent weeks by Trump’s tariff offensive, with fears mounting of an economic downturn. Last week, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most “reciprocal” tariffs, sparing all but those on China, which have surged to at least 145%. Despite the pause, Goldman Sachs economists peg the odds of a U.S. recession within the next year at 45%, a downgrade from their earlier prediction of a recession as the most likely outcome.

The warning comes as the U.S., the world’s largest economy, faces growing uncertainty. A recession, defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, could have far-reaching consequences. Dalio’s concerns echo a rising chorus of experts urging caution as the nation navigates this critical juncture.